10 Players to Watch at the 2023 PGA Championship
After a fascinating Masters weeks ago, the next major is here. This week’s field is packed full of stars, storylines and some controversy. Here are the ten players with the most at stake at Oak Hill.
Jon Rahm
The reigning Masters champion and world #1 has to be the top player to watch this week. He’s registered four wins already in the calendar year and six top three finishes in ten tournaments. Oddly, he’s been eaked out by Scottie Scheffler in the betting odds for the PGA this week, +750 to win to Scheffler’s +700. This might just be a credit to the difficulty of winning back-to-back majors. Rahm is hoping to become just the fourth player to ever win the Masters and the PGA in the same year. Still, his game is in much better form than Scheffler’s — Scottie can’t seem to make a putt, despite world-class ball striking. A win this week would already get him 3/4 of the way to the career grand slam. Rahm is minus odds for a top ten finish this week at Oak Hill — the pressure is on him — but that hasn’t really hindered him yet.
Justin Thomas
There’s no way to make this list without including the reigning PGA champion. JT’s historic comeback last year at Southern Hills secured him his second career major championship. He’s one of the defining players of this generation… but hasn’t been in great form this year. Thomas ranks 16th on tour in total strokes gained this season, and has fallen to 13th in the Official World Golf Rankings. His odds to win this week have been slipping quickly, and he’s now down to +3500, tied for 13th. And after missing the cut at the Masters, the pressure may be starting to mount just a little. While defending a title is never easy, JT had better at least put on a good showing this week at Oak Hill.
Brooks Koepka
Before the Masters last month, the performance of the LIV players was one of the top storylines. Who could predict how the LIV events would translate to success in a highly competitive tournament? For the most part, they did just fine, with three of the top ten finishers coming from the LIV tour. Koepka was probably the top highlight, entering the final round with a two-shot lead. Of course, he would go on to shoot a 75 and hand the trophy to Rahm. Still, it was exciting to see the return of ‘major Brooks’. He’s now registered thirteen top five finishes in majors, including four victories. After fighting through injuries and struggles in 2022, where he missed two cuts and finished 55th twice, the Brooks Koepka that we saw at Augusta last month looked like the major Brooks of old. If it really was just injuries holding him back, maybe we’ll see that guy again this weekend. As of Wednesday afternoon, you can get Koepka at 20 to 1 to win the PGA, the 6th best odds in the field.
Rory McIlroy
It’s now been eight years since Rory McIlroy won a major. He has four to his name, two PGA’s, a US Open and an Open Championship. He’s still chasing that elusive green jacket and the career grand slam that would come with it. As I’m sure you remember, Rory missed the cut at the Masters in April, and it’s been a very weird six weeks since. He withdrew from the RBC Heritage the next week, essentially breaking the ‘one missed designated event’ rule that he pushed for when redesigning the tour structure for 2023. He returned at the Wells Fargo and put on a mediocre showing. He’s been really quiet this week in media availability, and just doesn’t seem like the same Rory from January and February. Again, the major drought is up to eight years now, but the 2022 season was probably his best of those eight years. He finished 2nd, 8th, T5, and 3rd in the four majors, with a real chance to win at St. Andrew’s. He spent most of the year at #1 in the world, won the FedEx Cup, and led the tour in strokes gained. This week’s PGA Championship is a huge opportunity for McIlroy to regain some ground. The course sets up really well for his game, and he really is flying under the radar, currently tied with Patrick Cantlay at +1600 to win (tied for third). With a lot of season left to play, this could be a turning point for Rory.
Phil Mickelson
It’s difficult to even describe Phil’s performance at the Masters. Everyone with any credibility had basically ruled him out of playing competitive or serious golf, and he came out and finished in a tie for 2nd place via a round four 65. Given, it was the backdoor T2 to end all backdoor T2’s, meaning he was never really in contention to win, it’s still an unbelievable achievement. What does that mean for the PGA Championship this week? No one knows! Augusta National is famously friendly to players with a history of success that can draw on that experience. Phil has won the Masters three times, and finished in the top five twelve times. Not bad. With that in mind, he’s getting pretty much zero respect this week from the oddsmakers, currently +25000 to win and +1600 to top ten. And we can’t forget that, while Phil isn’t the reigning PGA champion, he’s (sort of) defending his 2021 title at Kiawah, since he didn’t play in the event last season. When you look at Mickelson’s recent major record, that victory in 2021 and his T2 at Augusta last month are certainly outliers. T18 is his other best finish since 2017. And we haven’t even gotten into the off-the-course drama, including a series of fiery tweets about LIV, the PGA, and the major fields this summer. At this point, we’ve come to expect the unexpected with Phil, but the expectations for his golf this week are all over the map.
Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay has now won eight times on tour, including the FedEx Cup in 2021. He’s up to fourth in the world, but he’s still yet to contend in a major. He’s only finished in the top eight at a major one time, the 2019 PGA Championship, where he registered a backdoor T3. He’s been in pretty good form this season, but wasn’t really a threat at the Masters, finishing at T14 and only making waves with his slow play, rather than his actual score. The pressure should continue to mount on Cantlay with each major until he at least contends on Sunday, or eventually wins one. Coming into this week, he’s tied with Rory McIlroy for the third best odds at +1600. The course seems to se up well for Cantlay, so maybe this will be the week he finally shows he’s more than a regular season player.
Rickie Fowler
After falling from the top ten in OWGR to outside top 100 in just two years, Rickie has quietly been one of the best players on tour this year. He’s 11th in strokes gained for the season, just ahead of Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa. He’s played ten tournaments this calendar year, made all ten cuts, and finished top 20 in eight of the ten. However, this is Rickie’s first major of the year, since he didn’t qualify for the 2023 Masters. It’s an absolutely huge test for a player that’s seen an incredible resurgence as of late. And there’s a lot at stake this summer for Rickie. He’s now inside the top fifty of the OWGR, which would qualify him for next year’s Masters, a return that would be highly anticipated. He missed out on the last two. Meanwhile, we have only three months until the Ryder Cup in Rome, and Rickie is starting to make a case for a spot on the team. Over the past six months, he’s been the seventh best American player by strokes gained. Keep an eye on him this week.
Tony Finau
Speaking of players who have quietly been among the best this season, Tony Finau hasn’t missed a cut since November. He’s third in strokes gained this season, behind Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, but is rarely considered as one of the top players in the world. DataGolf’s model has seen him rise to 5th in the world, while OWGR has him at 12th. It’s been his approach play that has leveled up this season, #1 on tour. Finau has been criticized in the past for an inability to win big events. A few weeks ago he won the Mexico Open against a week field. His other wins are the Houston Open, the Rocket Mortgage, the 3M Open, the Puerto Rico Open, and the Northern Trust, which is a limited field playoff event. Still no victories in big tournaments with a full, stacked field. Furthermore, Finau hasn’t had great success in majors, especially recently. He finished T26 at Augusta last month, and didn’t register a top 25 finish last year. This course seems to set up really well for him, and he’s got the 6th best odds to win. Seems to be a lot on the line for Tony this week, let’s see if he can really be a factor.
Dustin Johnson
When he left for the LIV Tour last summer, DJ was really the first domino to fall. He was one of the very few players who was still at the top of his game, or close to it, when he left. But you wouldn’t have known that from watching the Masters last month… while Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson both finished in the top five, DJ ended up at T48, after a very disappointing four rounds. Coming into this week, DataGolf’s model has Johnson at 19th in the world. He’s tied for 11th in the best odds to win the tournament. Another interesting part of DJ’s story is the fact that he won the LIV event in Tulsa last week. It’s still very difficult to assess the weight of a victory on LIV, and who’s to say whether they really serve as a credible harbinger for major success, but it sure can’t hurt to be coming off a win. It’s clear that the majors are going to be especially important opportunities for the LIV players, and it seems imperative that DJ is competitive this week at Oak Hill.
Collin Morikawa
At the Wells Fargo in Charlotte, Collin’s last start, he lost 1.55 strokes to the field per 18 holes. That’s good for his worst tournament since June of 2020. It’s crazy to think that Morikawa won two majors before his 25th birthday, and isn’t usually considered among the favorites to take home another. With his elite driving accuracy, this course might end up being a really good fit. Still, Morikawa is +3000 to win the tournament, the same as DJ. He certainly hasn’t been in the best of form, but this might be an opportunity for Collin to remind the golf watching public that he is among the best in the world. He hasn’t won a tour event since the Open Championship in 2021, and this major season could be big for him. After a backdoor T10 in the Masters last month, Morikawa is certainly someone to watch this week at Oak Hill, and in the last two majors this summer.
