Do the Bears have a Mitchell Trubisky problem?

In the 2017 draft, The Chicago Bears moved up one spot to draft quarterback Mitch Trubisky out of North Carolina. To move from #3 to #2, Chicago gave San Francisco their third-round pick (#67), fourth (#111), and their third-rounder from 2018. Since, Trubisky has been questionable at best. With the great defense and good offensive supporting cast in Chicago, what should the Bears do with Trubisky, if anything?

Option 1 — Ride it out

Quick disclaimer — none of these actions will be taken during the 2018 NFL season. Obviously, Trubisky is young, and there’s plenty of time before we know how good he is and will be. Chances are, the Bears will choose to ride it out, at least for the remainder of this season and probably next. However, there will become a point when Chicago will have to make a choice. After his fourth season, Mitch will be a free agent, and the Bears will have to decide whether he’s their guy. Here’s a look at his stats so far.

Trubisky has improved in every category, except interceptions. But the improvement in touchdowns may make up for it. In case you were curious, here’s a 16-game projection of Mitchell’s first two seasons so far.

That 35-TD number would have actually led the NFL last season, but this season Trubisky is 10th in passing TD’s, the league average has skyrocketed so much. However, 19 interceptions would’ve been second in the NFL last year (Kizer). Trubisky’s seven picks this year also ranks 10th in the NFL.

What’s the takeaway? Trubisky is one of the most inconsistent quarterbacksin the NFL. We’ve seen him have amazing games (6 TD’s, 354 yds vs TB). We’ve also seen bad games (52%, 2 INTs vs NE). Mitchell also threw the ball fifty times in that Pats game.

There’s definitely improvement from week to week, but Trubisky’s inconsistency is a big concern. It’s become Good Mitch/Bad Mitch. Who knows which Mitch we’ll get week to week?

Maybe Good Mitch/Bad Mitch is okay for a 24-year old. The stakes for Trubisky have been very high, for a few reasons. First of all, the trade through which the Bears acquired him. Giving up so many picks for a guy always raises the expectations. Secondly, the Bears’ array of offseason moves has resulted in a highly-improved team, up to 4–3 now, and they could’ve won all three of those losses. Khalil Mack is spectacular, and the additions of Robinson, Gabriel, and Burton have really improved the Bears’ offense.

Plus, the traits Mitchell has are the ones you want a young QB to have. He’s got the arm strength. He’s got the mobility. Ryen Russilo even suggested Trubisky may be the best running quarterback in the NFL. But he struggles with decision-making and accuracy, specifically the latter. How many times have Bears fans frustratedly watched him overthrow an open receiver? Too many. But that’s something a young QB can improve upon. He’s only 24.

Is Trubisky ready to quarterback a playoff team? He might have to. Either way, in only his second season, he’s already shown some incredible flashes. I would argue it’s okay to be inconsistent in your second season as an NFL QB. But if Trubisky can develop into the Good Mitch we saw in weeks 4 and 5? Watch out for the Bears.

Option 2 — Draft another QB

An underrated reality about the best quarterbacks in the NFL — not all of them are high draft picks. In fact, most aren’t. Here are the consensus top 5 QB’s of the last decade or so. Look at where they were drafted.

Ben Roethlisberger — 11th overall (1st Rd)
Aaron Rodgers — 24th overall (1st Rd)
Drew Brees — 32nd overall (2nd Rd)
Russell Wilson — 75th overall (3rd Rd)
Tom Brady — 199th overall (6th Rd)

Let’s take a look at all the top-5 picks at the quarterback positions, and see how they’re doing these days. An asterisk signifies a pro bowl appearance.

2018 #1 Baker Mayfield
2018 #3 Sam Darnold

2017 #2 Mitchell Trubisky

2016 #1 Jared Goff
2016 #2 Carson Wentz

2015 #1 Jameis Winston
2015 #2 Marcus Mariota

2014 #3 Blake Bortles

2012 #1 Andrew Luck
2012 #2 Robert Griffn III

2011 #1 Cam Newton

2010 #1 Sam Bradford

So how many of those guys panned out? Cam did. Luck did. If healthy. RG3 didn’t. Bradford didn’t. Say what you want about Blake Bortles. Mariota and Winston haven’t looked great this year. The other guys are all young. So how reliable are these top picks? It sure doesn’t seem like a guarantee.

So what’s the takeaway from this data? What should be the blueprint for finding a franchise QB? Well, going all-in for a top pick sometimes works. (See Newton, Stafford, Ryan, Luck). Developing a lower pick works too. But maybe the best strategy is just to take shots. Keep drafting QB’s, and eventually you’ll find one.

The Seahawks drafted a QB in 1999, 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2009, and then found their guy in 2012.

The Packers drafted Craig Nall in 2002, Aaron Rodgers in 2005, Ingle Martin in 2006, and both Matt Flynn AND Bryan Brohm in 2008.

The Patriots took Michael Bishop in the 7th round in 1999 and Tom Brady in the 6th round in 2000. In 2001, Brady blossomed. In 2002 they took Rohan Davey in the 4th round, and in 2003 Kliff Kingsbury in the 6th.

Maybe it’s okay to draft multiple QB’s in a few years.

Maybe some draft picks can be shots in the dark.

Maybe the Bears can draft a QB or two in the next couple years, just in case.

Backup QB has proved a very important position in the NFL lately, too, with all the injuries we’ve seen. Heck, the reigning Super Bowl MVP is a backup QB! So why don’t the Bears take a shot?

They probably won’t. Chicago’s front office has already invested so much in Trubisky, they can’t back out. If the Bears go QB in the draft, it’ll be 5th round or later. They must avoid all QB drama. Look at the Bears social media accounts. They repeatedly call Trubisky “Our QB”. Yes, part of it is just branding, but there’s definitely a sense around the organization that the Bears must continually reinforce the fact that Trubisky is the guy.

So if Chicago were to acquire a new QB, they’d never pick up someone that could appear to be a threat to Mitch. A sixth-round pick wouldn’t feel like a threat, just like Chase Daniel doesn’t feel like a threat. That’s the trap you get into when you pour so much into one quarterback.

Option 3 — Trade for or sign a veteran

The history of this isn’t super good. The Bears acquired Jay Cutler from Denver in 2009. That may have actually turned out the best. Carson Palmer went to Oakland in 2011, and did little there. Sam Bradford was sent to Minnesota in 2016 and had a solid season for the Vikes. Those are all the big veteran QB trades I could find in recent memory.

Obviously, if the Bears were to go this route, they’d have to commit to a starter either way. So I see only two paths that end in this solution. Path 1: Trubisky flames out, proves to be a bust, and cannot be the Bears quarterback of the future. Say he becomes Geno Smith or Mark Sanchez. Chicago then has to find a new QB. First, let’s entertain the idea of a trade. How many teams would be willing to trade their QB?

There aren’t a lot of quarterbacks on the market. Nick Foles is a candidate, but it’s likely he’d be gone by now if the Eagles wanted to trade him. All the other options are guys like Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Mike Glennon, guys that wouldn’t be better than Trubisky anyway.

So if the Bears choose to move on from Mitch, maybe they can sign a free agent. Well, here’s the 2019 class: Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater, Josh McCown… there’s nothing here.

The Conclusion

If Chicago wants to move on from Trubisky, they’ll have to draft another quarterback. But it doesn’t seem like they’re going to. Like it or not, Mitchell Trubisky is the Bears’ guy. He’s “our QB”. And yes, he’s not very accurate, and yes, he’s made some questionable choices on the field, but he’s also 24 years old, and put together back to back 300-yard games with 3 TD’s in one and SIX in the other, plus a 70+ completion percentage in each. His stats this season rank middle of the pack in a passing NFL, and he’s 24.

The Bears are stuck with Mitch Trubisky. But that’s okay. The 24 year-old is an average starting quarterback already, and he’s shown flashes that he can really become something special.