The formula that could bring the Bears to the Super Bowl

We’ve at last reached the final week of the NFL regular season. The Chicago Bears are (amazingly) sitting at 11–4. After going 5–11 last season, they’ve gone from worst to first, clinched the division title, and will end up with the 2nd or 3rd seed, depending on Week 17 results. Before the season, Vegas projected the Bears to win 5.5 games, tied as the third-worst team in the NFL. Instead, the Bears will win 11 or 12 games, and are tied as the third-best team in the NFL instead. Not only did they turn things around from last season, but overcame all expectations, and now look like real contenders. So what is the formula that could bring such an inexperienced team to Super Bowl LII?

Football starts at quarterback, right? Then let’s talk about Mitchell Trubsky. Chicago’s second-year QB has been surprisingly successful under first-year head coach Mike Nagy. Nagy has simply allowed Trubisky to play his game and be himself. “Be You” is written on Mitchell’s play-call wrist band. That’s what Nagy says to Trubisky before each game. “Be You”. And it’s worked. Before the season, he was a laughingstock of a quarterback, but now he’s a pro bowl alternate. In his rookie year, Trubisky went 4–8 as a starter, throwing 7 touchdown and 7 interceptions. He averaged 182 yards per game, and finished with a QBR of 32. This season, he’s already 10–3 as a starter, with 24 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. 235 yards per game, and a QBR of 72. Huge improvements. Why?

Yes, there have been weapons added to the roster. Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, Allen Robinson of course. But the real difference has been coaching. Nagy has realigned expectations for Trubisky, but he’s also been using the skill position players in a way we didn’t see under John Fox. Lightning-fast tailback Tarik Cohen leads the team in receptions. Only 55% of the Bears’ targets have been to wide receivers. This Chiefs-style offense (Nagy was KC’s offensive coordinator before joining Chicago) has helped Trubisky thrive.

But Mitch also has another advantage that no other signal caller does: the Bears defense. Going up against Chicago’s D, 20.6% of opposing teams’ drives in turnovers… that’s 1 in 5! The Bears have 27 interceptions. The next best team has 20. The 49ers have 2. Chicago has also allowed only 5 rushing TD’s in 15 games. All those numbers rank #1 in the NFL. In the past three weeks, the Bears have allowed one touchdown… and it was a 50 yard drive, after a failed fake punt. That’s the thing about this defense. You can’t drive the entire field on them. As long as the offense plays it smart and takes care of the ball, they’ll win games.

There’s a formula there. Yes, the defense has to be spectacular, but they have been. You read the stats. This is the best defense in the NFL, and the offense is better than you think. But with the defense they have, the offense doesn’t have to be great. They run the ball, make short, smart passes, and don’t turn the ball over.

Turnovers are the Achilles heel that could end up being the Bears’ downfall. Trubisky has been known to make rushed decisions that lead to interceptions. But usually the picks come late in the play. When Mitch takes the snap and hits his first or second option in the first couple seconds of the play, he’s accurate and smart. Nagy has a system that can help Trubisky hit a receiver in stride after a quick drop back. However, when he looks through his progressions and doesn’t have an open guy, he scrambles, improvises, and that’s when mistakes can happen. He’s no Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson. Instead, when under pressure, he’s got a few options. Take the sack, throw it away, or take off running. Taking off running has actually been a pretty good option. He averages 6.2 yards per carry, 3rd among starting QB’s. He’s 5th in rushing yards among QB’s too, which is especially impressive considering how rarely the Bears run designed QB runs. Nearly all of those carries are scrambles. So that’s one option. Throwing it away is a pretty good option, too. He’s been good at getting rid of it. Even taking a sack isn’t ideal, but a sack that leads to a punt is far better than an interception. Punt it into their own territory and make them try and go 70 yards on the best defense in the NFL.

We’ve already seen the Bears beat the Rams, 15–6. Right now, the road to Atlanta starts with a home game against Minnesota, followed by Bears @ Rams, a rematch that would be tougher in Los Angeles, and then the NFC Championship, which seems like it will be in New Orleans. That’ll be an incredibly tough game, if Chicago gets that far. But the Bears match up well against these offense-first teams like the Rams and Saints. This defense has improved over the season, and it’s absolutely on fire right now. There are no teams that wanna face them right now, and I’d feel confident in the Bears defense, no matter who they’re facing. In a matchup with the Rams, Saints… dare I say Chargers or Chiefs… if the defense does its job, all Trubisky has to do is hang on to the ball, be smart, punt if you have to. The defense has his back. Be you. The Bears have a real chance.