Why the Rockets NEED to go all in for Jimmy Butler

On September 19, over a month ago, Jimmy Butler requested a trade from the Timberwolves. Since, we’ve gotten every time of possible drama out of Minnesota, but no trade. Reports say Houston has offered four first-round picks for Butler, and this is why the Rockets should give the Wolves whatever it takes to get Jimmy in Houston.

An NBA championship window is hard to come by. It’s not easy to be a real contender in the association, especially in an era where four of the league’s top twenty players are on one team.

But there’s one team, and only one, that has proven to be a worthy adversary to Golden State. That team is, of course, the Houston Rockets. Last season, Houston had the Warriors on the ropes, up 3–2 in the Western Conference Finals. Golden State took Game Six in Oakland, and the series came down to Game Seven in Houston.

As the story goes, the Rockets miss 27 threes in a row, and Chris Paul tears his hamstring. Just like that, Houston’s season is over, and the Warriors are mopping the floor with Cleveland in the Finals.

Now, the Warriors have added Boogie Cousins and Jonas Jerebko and are looking as strong as ever thru seven games, while the Rockets are 1–5, after losing Luc Mbah a Moute and Trevor Ariza over the summer and replacing them with Carmelo Anthony and James Ennis.

After Houston’s disappointing offseason, many argued their championship window may have already closed — that 2018 was their chance, and they blew it. And after their incredibly slow start, that argument has gained momentum.

And if they go into May with the same roster they have today, it may feel like a longshot to see the Rockets taking Golden State to seven again. But there’s hope. There’s a savior from Minnesota, ready to re-energize Houston and help bring them back to the Western Conference Finals. That man is Jimmy Butler.

When the report came out the other day that Houston was offering four first-round picks for Jimmy Butler, many NBA fans were shocked. FOUR first-rounders?? That’s crazy!! No one is worth that!

The people who thought that were, well, wrong. First of all, there’s a couple things we have to understand about these four picks, so let’s do that.

They’d have to alternate years, due to the Stepien Rule, which states that teams cannot trade back-to-back first round picks. So the years would presumably be 2019, 2021, 2023, and 2025.

Next, we have to clarify one VERY IMPORTANT thing about these picks. If the Rockets send four first-rounders, they would not be sending any value players to Minnesota, as reported by Woj. Instead, they’d be sending Brandon Knight, whose contract actually makes him hurt their payroll. Essentially, one or two of those first-rounders would be as part of a Brandon Knight salary dump.

So one or two of those picks is just the cost for getting a bad contract off Houston’s books. Now we sit at two or three first round picks really being the price for Jimmy. Now let’s consider how high those picks will be.

First, the Rockets will be sending their 2019 pick. This one will almost definitely be very late in the first-round. If Houston makes this trade, they should finish with a very good regular-season record, which would put their pick between 25th and 30th.

Then there’s 2021. All of Houston’s “big three” will still be under contract. Chris Paul will be 35, James Harden 31, and Clint Capela 24. Will they be in championship contention? Probably not. But will they make the playoffs? I’d bet on it. So that 2021 pick won’t be in the lottery. It should be around #20.

Now we’re left with Houston’s 2023 and 2025 picks… there’ no way of knowing how good the Rockets will be then, so I’m not even gonna try.

Now that we’ve cleared that up, here’s the trade:

Rockets get: Jimmy Butler

Wolves get: Brandon Knight’s contract, and a pick to even that out
Two late first rounders, and a 2023 first rounder

Does that seem fair? It seems like a no-brainer for both sides. Minnesota gets to replace Jimmy in the short-term, and they get some picks to set up the future with Towns and Wiggins.

Still not convinced? Remember the beginning of the article when I was talking about championship windows in the NBA? This really comes down to one thing: The Rockets championship window is still open. They’re contenders. And with Jimmy Butler, they’d be scary for Golden State. That would be a series we all wanna see.

The upside for the deal is obviously there. Even if the Rockets need to give up Eric Gordon, which would hurt, a lineup of Paul — Harden — Butler — Capela would give the Warriors a real series.

But does that reward outweigh the risk? The Rockets championship window is right now. It’s not 2021, and it’s definitely not 2023 or 2025. Why would you want to preserve those 2023 and 2025 picks? What’s the upside there? If you’re Rockets’ management, why would you play for any time other than right now?

Daryl Morey, your championship window is closing. It probably won’t be open in 2021, and it sure as hell won’t be in 2023 or 2025. This is your chance to go at the Warriors. Do it.